Friday, October 17, 2008
Dollar got a bounce, Euro rallied back up and is
now selling off again.
Bonds still down in the 113s,
Stocks move up, then down...what else is new?
Oil...I don't care unless it doesn't come down
to the same prices we had in August of 2007
when oil cost the same as it does now...
Do you really think we are going to see gas down
at those prices again?...come on...I have a bridge for sale.
These markets are now nothing but open season
on inexperienced traders. It's as if the most stupid
of the traders were being run through a narrow
slaughter chute with the pros standing on the sides
above them simply shooting them as the pass by.
Even easier than shooting fish in a barrel.
Caution: Humans at work!
Before this sell off the Euro was moving up
briskly and the dollar was slipping. Gold did not
follow the Euro, though it can lag a bit, or even
sell a little lower and then go up. It didn't do either.
Then the Euro started selling off and gold dumped.
Bonds are down again in the 113s. Oil is up from
its lows but doesn't seem to be a factor right now.
Stocks are up a bit after a gap down opening and
gapped up from the low then gapped down again
forming and "island top" which is a very ominous
chart pattern that resolves down quite precipitously
Stocks look like they are in for a very large drop.
These rallies don't last very long, are sold off
quickly by profit takers and those who don't
want gold to rise, and are on low volume.
But if we get enough of them, pretty soon gold
creates a trend up, which is sure to happen soon
as the economy crumbles
This is the point where those with the biggest
balls and courage, or the completely nuts,
step in and make a fortune later if they don't
over leverage themselves.
Bush is babbling again about how wonderful our
Guv'mint is acting to "protect our citizens".
What bullshit! Someone ought to lock that bastard
in a cell quickly, but don't kill him. I want him to suffer
in the same way he has caused others to suffer...
for the rest of his miserable life. What a puke he is!
Dollar at .82905, Oil drops to $69 a barrel!
Euro at 1.34 and rising off its low at 1.3379
Bonds ins the 114s, up from 113 25,
Dow rising for now but is still HISTORY!
Gold may get a good bounce on the open, but will be
sold off immediately.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
The market is moving so darn fast I can barely
monitor all the markets to keep my head in the game.
Gold is simply all over the map today after being
knocked for a loop.
There will be nobody but the BIGGIES left to
scoop up all the gold after they have wiped out all
us peasants with all these plans, mortgages, and
probably confiscation of all assets "for the good of the state"
just until we can "fix" things...yeah right!
Some pull back here, or even a sell off into the
day session close, then a good run up higher
in electronic trading
Just like I told you it would, gold dipped down
to tag the 75% retrace point at 78890 and went
a pinch lower. Now it will pull back again to retest
the low and may go a pinch below that before heading
back up on its next big up leg higher.
Gold has tested the upper line of the down flag
about 6 times and hasn't penetrated it yet, except
slightly in the last 5 minutes. It could just zoom up
if it breaks out, or it could just trade in this area
for some time. Volumes aren't fantastic to the upside
but there are certainly a lot of contracts changing hands
in here as gold tries to build a bottom.
Gold has built a slight down flag, but if it doesn't
start to move up with some boldness, it will more
than likely sell down to the low and slightly below
before moving up. That is unless the "powers" want
to hit it again in order to hit the 75% point at 78890
which gold typically will hit eventually before finally
rallying, so be alert to that.
Dollar is up to .8292 after hitting .8300.
Down sinking fast..hitting 8311 before bouncing a bit.
Euro near 1.3380 after falling from 1.3533
Oil at 72s on low side of the range of 71s to 74.50
Gold retraced almost 75% of the entire up move
from the BIG LOW at 73980 up to 93630 bottoming
at 79350, just above the 75% retrace point at 78890
Can the " powers" drive it lower?
They have lots of people scratching their heads now,
which is what they wanted to happen so people would
be afraid to put their paper money into gold...
exactly the OPPOSITE of what they should be doing.
Gold gets hit big time out of the blue, unrelated
to the other markets which are trading normally.
Obviously, the "powers" decided that gold was too
high and needed to try to obliterate it to eliminate any
alternative to their paper money scheme.
So far gold is holding above 79350 and is climbing up
slowly with one minor pullback. Volume is not fantastic.
Down volume for the big hit was about 32,000 contracts
between 6:30am and 6:50am pdst, which is very substantial
volume and indicative of large sellers rather than a lot of
little sellers. Gold went down so fast that it is obvious that
some very big sellers ran the stops and cleaned house, then
covered those shorts at the bottom.
Volumes are still quite light from what we have
been experiencing but understandable for what
has happened to this market.
Dollar is up a bit but off its highs, Euro is now
turning up after falling some,
Bonds fell to the low 113s, but are now in the 114s
Stocks up a bit on the open
Oil making new lows, just rallied some but now moving
The little white down flag is rebuilding itself
into a more normal angle of decent and should
resolve up more normally. Extreme angles can't
sustain themselves for long. When they resolve,
they can move for extreme distances, but immediately
retrace on profit taking simply because they are extreme.
And gold just now falls to the low at 834
BOLD green major uptrend line has been re-positioned
as prices pierced through it, so now we just include
those prices in the new major uptrend channel.
The little white down flag is very steep and should
resolve up even higher than ususal, but the bold blue
up flag resolves down. Which has control?
Volumes are on the light side as the gold market has
been drained of open interest and is rebuilding itself
for what is to come...BOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!
Up volume was moderate for 3 minutes of the
spike up, then the pull back.
A move a little higher, and then more pull back
a bit lower creating the beginnings of our usual
down flag which should resolve up. But this market
is so crazy now, especially at new lows like this,
that you can't be certain which way things are going
to go at all. Very uncertain times until major institutions
start to fail in series, then gold takes off for good.