Friday, May 1, 2009
GOLD STILL ACTING WEAK BEFORE THE AFTERNOON CLOSE AT 2:15PM PDST
This late in the day gold is trading very quietly
and single digit volume and most likely will not
make any large moves except for a few gyrations
in the last few minutes of trading. It could just
slowly approach the 75% point at 8854 which now
coincides with the white uptrend line at the close.
Dow rallied about 50 points into its close for the day
and week.
Dollar has formed a down flag the last few hours by
slipping a little lower each hour.
Bonds rose in an up flag after taking out an intermediate
low today and should resolve that flag down.
Euro has traded sideways in a range most of the day
after a pull back from its recent up move in two big
stair steps off its intermediate low at the end of an
intermediate down flag which is in the process of
resolving up right now.
Yen has just been falling for a long time with rallies
that keep making lower highs and lower lows (the
definition of a BEAR market)
Oil has fallen for the last year and is in a very long
rounding up pattern that is taking forever to get
some altitude and is simply stuck in the low 50s for now
Soon enough, some exogenous (outside) event will trigger
and explosion in PMs and probably all commodities as the
economic structure finally collapses from that final straw
of imbecility that you witness every day in the media.
Drip, drip, drip....and finally the mountain cracks open.
MOVING AVERAGES FOR 5/1/09
Gold price is below all the MAs except the 200 day MA
A bearish condition, IF it continues to fall.
But...remember that markets seek equilibrium, so
gold wants to rise towards those MAs that it is
beneath, but also is being pulled lower by the 200 day MA
that it is above. Somewhere is the point of equilibrium
at any point in time (which is constantly changing)
11:45AM PDST GOLD RETRACES 75% OF THE BIG MOVE UP AS EXPECTED
But, will it move back up now?
Gold may still move lower, at least to the bottom
white uptrend line.
I think, and hope, it will fall some more so I can
make something on my short leg in August gold
that I had to put on as insurance while I was gone
this morning. That one cost me thousands in lost
opportunity, as I would have put the short on at
the top of the $7 runup, then made money on the
way back down. Double Drat!
11:27AM PDST GT IS BACK EARLY
I'm back in time to watch the remainder of today's market.
The big rally of the day would take place while I was gone.
Drat!
The big rally of the day would take place while I was gone.
Drat!
THIS RALLY IS ON MOSTLY LOW VOLUME WITH A FEW MINUTES OF MODERATE VOLUME, IT HAS PROBABLY PEAKED NOW AT THE TOP OF THE WHITE UPTREND CHANNEL
No time to analyze right now, as I have to leave
for my appointment. Hope to be back by 1 or 2
at the latest.
A LARGER VIEW, GOLD IS IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE RED DOWN TREND CHANNEL AND IS IN THE 'OVER BOUGHT' AREA
Although, gold is near the low side of the purple
up trend channel lower line.
Most rallies in recent days have been low volume
rallies and quickly sold off.
Even though gold is rising at the moment, it will
probably get taken back down on profit taking at
the least and if the shorts can get some downward
momentum going, they will whack it as hard as they
can. Read Dan Norcini's comments from yesterday
about what the shorts need to, and will, do, as well
as any comment sof Jim Sinclair on the same subject.
GOLD VIOLATES THE BLUE UPFLAG BUT IS STILL WITHIN THE WHITE UPFLAG NEAR THE 75% RETRACE POINT AT 8832
Dollar has slipped to .84675, currently .8471
Euro gradually rising
Bonds near their lows
Dow only off 5 points
Oil sideways near their highs
GOLD IS IN TWO UP FLAGS WHICH MAY RESOLVE DOWN LATER TODAY, UPSIDE ACTIVITY IS WEAK
Euro is moving up slowly
Yen down
Oil higher
Dow rising to break even to up 10
Bonds broke through a previous intermediate
low this morning but, as usual, the longs move
in a keep it from collapsing to new lows, but just
barely
Dollar is slipping to .8472, currently at .8472
EVERY GOLD RALLY IS SHORT AND STOPPED SOON AT PREVIOUS TOPS OR 75% RETRACE POINTS
Could we get a big jump today? I don't know,
and I can't gamble on it as I have to leave by
9:30am pdst this morning for my final dentist
appointment and have to put my gold spread
back on to prevent disaster while I'm gone.
Right now I'm long June with no protection unless
I short August gold for insurance.
Today's markets are all over the map with no
real news that should affect markets in the short
term enough to drive gold up.
But on Fridays, strange things can happen. Either
traders can bail out of gold, not wanting to be in
over the weekend, or could buy in because they
want gold insurance in case the world explodes
on the weekend.
Either way, it's a gamble, and you can't do anything
if the market isn't open for you to get to your contracts.
I would rather be long on a weekend, as SOME DAY soon
the World will blow up!
GOLD SHOWING LITTLE DIRECTION, COULD MOVE LOWER FROM LACK OF ACTIVITY
The boyz want gold down muc lower anyway,
so lack of volume in trading could allow gold
to drop a good deal, especially with the Dow
dropping, Bonds falling, Euro topping, etc.
and Dollar not falling completely on its ass.
I'm inclined to believe we may get a sudden
big drop today.
DOW SELLING OFF ON THE OPENING DOWN 50
Euro sideways to up and trying
Bonds seem, to be bottoming,
Oil to be topping
Dollar still fairly steady at .8487
Gold now making up moves, but
volume is still very light with pulses of barely
moderate volume now and then
GOLD RISES ON 2 MINUTES OF LIGHT/MODERATE VOLUME, BUT IS STOPPED AT THE PREVIOUS HIGH AT 885
Bonds still falling
Dow about to open at even
Euro up slightly
Yen falling
Oil rising
Dollar steady at .8484
GOLD RETRACES 75% ON LIGHT VOLUME
Euro still moving down
Dow down to even
Bonds beginning to rise...maybe
Dollar up to .8490
Yen rising
Oil in the 51s but hard to see a direction as it
has risen well and is now consolidating near
its highs
GOLD DROPS TO 882 ON LIGHT VOLUME AND RALLIES UP, ALSO LIGHT VOLUME
Euro rising a bit
Bonds down
Dow moving down, but up 20
Dollar rising to .8484, currently .8478
Gold rises to the first 75% points at 8843,
next one is at 8857
LIGHT VOLUME LEADS TO WILD, ERRATIC SWINGS IN TRADING
The Indicator Markets I use are all moving lower
Dollar is rising slowly, currently at .8475 and in
a down flag that could resolve up
GOLD JUMPS UP ON A SPURT OF VOLUME THEN GETS BEATEN DOWN IMMEDIATELY
Gold 'may' be finding support in the area of
the top blue line of the down trend channel
which it has just broken up and out of
5:15AM PDST GOLD THRASHES AROUND A LITTLE ON LIGHT VOLUME BEFORE THE CRIMEX OPEN
Bonds down
Euro rising
Oil rising
Dow up 30
Dollar falling mostly, currently .84575 up a bit
from its low at .8443
Thursday, April 30, 2009
GOLD RALLIES ON THE CLOSE ON STRONG VOLUME BUT IS NOW FADING
Gold could either sell off a good deal here, or
find support on the top blue line of the uptrend
channel just broken out of, or lower at the congestion
area around 890.
Dow has lost all its gains and is even for the day
Dollar has slipped down to .8497
GOLD WILL PROBABLY FALL INTO THE CRIMEX CLOSE A GOOD BIT
Gold rallies back up only to fall again, (not shown here)
And, no sooner do I hit the send button on the
lower chart, than gold plummets $2 in a straight
line down with a bounce back on 409 contracts.
The sell off will probably continue as that drop
more than likely scared some weak longs
GOLD, OIL AND EURO SELLING DOWN PRETTY FAST, DOLLAR RISES TO .85065
Gold holding its own for now, but could drop at any time,
yet it is moving higher ready to test 8878 again...
and punches through it on 119 contracts, pulls back, and moves
higher to 8886
yet it is moving higher ready to test 8878 again...
and punches through it on 119 contracts, pulls back, and moves
higher to 8886
45 MINUTES BEFORE THE CRIMEX CLOSE
Dollar is up to .8496
Bonds have moved up
Dow is now down to on 30 points up since yesterday
with over 3 hours left in the day session
Euro is trending down from its highs
Yen is slightly up to sideways
Oil is dropping
Gold just jumped up to its recent high at 8878
on about 218 contracts (what I call a 'spurt' of volume)
and fell back a bit.
Will it punch through now and go higher, or
will gold sell off before, or into, the close?
Volume is VERY LIGHT, except for those 'spurts'
and gold is approaching the next 75% retrace point
at 8888
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