Friday, January 30, 2009
Uptrend Channels Resolve DOWN!
Gold is in an overbought condition
above the Top Line of the
BLACK MAJOR DOWNTREND CHANNEL
which Resolves UP!
Gold could have a correction at this level.
Every time in the last four years that I have believed
WITHOUT A DOUBT that gold was going to the moon.
IT CORRECTED BIG TIME and WIPED ME OUT when
I thought I had enough funds to weather a big dip.
Once again, I believe gold could run up big time from here.
So let's all be very careful without sacrificing being on board
if it does continue higher.
The FACT that gold has already seen, and crossed, both
900 and 1000, will make them less a problem to cross in
the future, It's the 100 dollar increments above 1000 that
have never been touched that will offer more resistance.
But by then, the World's economic conditions should be so
bad, that it probably won't matter as everyone is fleeing to
the "ONLY" REAL MONEY left on the planet.
When you read Dan Norcini's comments for
today (now posted on JSMINESET.COM)
REMEMBER, he's still talking about FEBRUARY'09 GOLD!
My charts are for APRIL'09 GOLD!
So the number he's using are slightly different
due to the different contracts which are due to
interest and carrying charges betweeen the two months
Gold appears to have decoupled from just about
every other market and is now trading on its own
strictly as a currency (the only REAL one!) and
as safe haven for your assets.
I am only trading using trendchannels, flags and
fibonaccis to grab profits on easily tradeable moves
each day. It is a far better use of my trading capital
to trade that way than to just buy contracts and
hang on for a long move. Gold has become just too
erratic and I hate having a profit made and then
losing it when gold reverses. If I take it while I have
it, even if I could have had more, I still have SOMETHING!
And I am building my account to be able to trade even
more contracts which increases my leverage.
Some of my profits will be used to acquire more
cash gold coins at Monex ON MARGIN to be able
to lock in a cheap price (compared to the future prices)
on more coins with less money. I will try to
pay them all off and take possession, but I 'may'
sell some of them and use that profit to pay off
the remaining margined coins. I do NOT try to
use margined Monex coins to trade for profit because
their bid/ask spread is too wide and doesn't allow
you to profit unless you catch an outrageous move in
gold in a very short time, and that just doesn't happen.
So selling some coins at a top and applying the profits
to the other coins remaining is about the only thing you
can do to make maximum use of your money and have
gold coins at the same time.
The gold market has COMPLETELY changed its
character this past week and we have to adapt to that.
Very soon now, gold is going to skyrocket $50 to $100
PER DAY with intra-day fluctuations of similar amounts.
The average person will not know how to trade it and
will more than likely get wiped out.
So, now is the time to just buy your cash gold and hang on
for the best.
However, it is possible that gold could just
sell off because traders don't want to be in the
market over the weekend.
It could also be considered wise to be IN the
market in case some exogenous event were to
make the World explode while the market is closed
I have redrawn some of the old trendlines which
will show more clearly in larger charts.
We are now in a new down flag which resolves up
But, we are also in very high territory and at any
minute, if gold doesn't keep moving up strongly and
quickly, some traders my just decide to take profit.
If enough of them take profit, and others with less
profit see it fading, they will all start selling and
drop the market quickly providing another good
entry point for cash buyers as well as traders.
Gold moved up after the quick sell off as it
usually does. It struggled after reaching the
first 75% retrace point at 91740, so I took the
profit I had which was substantial and am glad
I did, because gold is looking like it may move
back down to test the low once again, or at least
pull back before moving higher. Either way,
I made money...YAY!
All the other markets are moving down right now,
and the dollar is up. But gold goes up anyway, so
I'm not paying much attention to the other markets.
If I had, I wouldn't have made these last two trades
and made money from the very profitable short moves
in gold trading.
It appears that loads of buyers are jumping in
on every pull back, but day traders are taking
profit on every little rise, thus the up and down
action moving a little higher each time.
But will gold take out this new high today?
It's pretty high after the run up over night
so it could take a day, or until tonight, for the
market to digest all this new action.
5:50AM PST GOLD PULLS BACK, THEN TAKES OFF AND TESTS THE NEW HIGH, PULLS BACK AGAIN AND MAY NOW MOVE HIGHER AS DOLLAR STARTS DROPPING
I just made a nice little profit on that move but
should have made lots more, but I bought in just
before the pull back to 91850 which was a $6
pull back and would have added much to the profit
I made. I was not particularly worried about the pull
back, except having missed it, as I was fairly confident
that gold was goint to move back up to break out of
the down flag and test the new high, which it did.
I managed to get out right at the high. Now to wait
for another deep pull back and rebuy for the next
run up. I don't see the gold haters being able to knock
gold down much anymore after these last two days
taking gold into new territory ABOVE THE MAJOR
DOWNFLAG (BLACK LINES) we have been in ever
since gold hit its all time high last year.
Other markets reversing directions to fast to
post reliable info to you. GDP down 'less' than
expected...This is good news? SPIN, SPIN, SPIN
Dollar moves up to .8653, but doesn't seem to
be influencing gold the last two days, at least
when the buck moves up. When it moves down
hard, it will affect all markets. That seems to be
about to happen any day now.
NY will either hit gold hard on the open, or the
shorts will scramble to cover their positions, which
they may have already been doing as gold rose
at midnight, thus adding to the buying pressure.
Gold seems to have decoupled from the dollar
as the buck hit a high of .8651, currently at .8642
NOTICE THAT GOLD IS NOW ABOVE THE
TOP BLACK LINE OF THE MAJOR DOWN FLAG
THAT RESOLVES UP! That line will become support
after the next breakout.
Wouldn't you know it. Last night I went to sleep
early to recharge and chose to NOT set my
alarm for midnight to check the market then
for the usual wee hour trading. The gold gods
are really screwing with me. Not only did I get
caught in the sell off before yesterday's rise, I
lost the opportunity to profit from yesterday's
rise as I waited for gold to float back up to get
out of that bad trade without a loss. I even missed
out on a slight profit from that trade. Now this
lost opportunity. So don't feel bad about missing
moves. There will be lots more opportunities to
profit. Just keep your head in the present, or
you will miss them while you fret over the past.
The past is history and now will be tomorrow's past.
4:22AM PST FRIDAY...BIG NEWS! GOLD EXPLODES OVERNIGHT! UP TO 928..BREAKS ABOVE BLACK MAJOR DOWN FLAG...TO THE MOON ALICE!
Gold takes off in Asia starting at midnight PST
rising quickly on 12,800 contracts, then a 4.62K
pullback the next hour, then two hours of up
and down of about 2.6K contracts. The 4am pst
hour so far shows 1.36K contract up.
Notice the pattern of down flags and break outs
that lead us up the green uptrend channel.
This is how gold trades in the larger context, doing
so in little up and down 75% retracements in both
directions. Hang on to your hats. Gold is coming
home to roost on the top of the chicken coop.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Gold may pull back here some before moving
higher this afternoon and overnight.
How far the pull back will be, I don't know until
it happens. I need the trading action to be able
to detect when I think the market is turning
around. Be sure to read Dan Norcini's afternoon
comments at JSMINESET which should post in
the next few minutes.
Can you see the down flag?
It's going to break to the upside any minute now.
Notice how well gold is maintaining this level?
Dollar is way up and all the other markets are
going the wrong direction.
But gold has a mind of it's own.
Not one other market is moving in a manner
to cause gold to spike and the dollar is up right
I still say gold is going to spike pretty soon.
Hopefully, gold will find support around 886
which is the previous top just exceeded.
And it appears to be doing just this.
This is typically a good support area of any
move like this. This move up seems to be
independent of influence by other markets
and is a result of roll over activity