Friday, February 13, 2009

1:50PM PST LOOKS LIKE THE GOLD UP SPIKE WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK


At least I was correct about the H&S pattern.
I really thought that gold had the ability to make it up to the 75% retrace point near 949, but it just
got hit by the shorts too many times. I guess too many traders didn't want to get upside down, or even in the market, over the long weekend.
I'm off to do my taxes. More tonight when I get back.

1:00PM PST DOW TANKS 135 POINTS ON THE CLOSE



Gold bounced off the blue bottom uptrend line quite well, but is now falling again.

GOLD WILL CLOSE AT 2:15PM PST TODAY

AND WILL TRADE SUNDAY STARTING THE USUAL TIME AT 3:00PM PST AND CONTINUE TRADING ON GLOBEX STRAIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SOME OTHER MARKETS WILL BE CLOSED FOR PRESIDENT'S DAY.

12:50PM PST THE H&S PATTERN IS STILL VALID AND THE 75% RETRACE POINT IS STILL AT 54990


I decided to cash out at 94380.
Good thing I did, as gold dropped right after that.
I don't have time to monitor this trade today and I certainly wouldn't think of having an open position that I wasn't monitoring 100% of the time.
Looks like gold is pulling back some right now. If
it drops low enough, I will buy back in and let it ride over the weekend.

12:39PM PST GOLD STILL MOVING HIGHER ON VERY LIGHT VOLUME


12:00PM PST HOW ABOUT THAT CALL FOLKS? GOLD ISN'T THROUGH MOVING UP YET


Dow down 115 and falling
Dollar lower at .8617
Bonds turning up a little
Yen and Euro sideways
I would have expected more reaction to the House passage of the Stimulus Bill. Now the Senate has to pass it.
At least gold is moving to the upside.
Over the weekend is a G7 meeting.
Nothing good ever comes out of those meetings,
although the market did gap mightily back in 1985 after one of those meetings, so you can't discount them.
I don't know whether I will cash out today or hang on. I have an appointment with my tax person at 3pm which leaves me just enough time to get there after the market close at 2:15pm pst. Gold could still rise the rest of the day. Another 40 minutes until the Dow closes, which could have an influence on things. Gold trading volume is very light.

11:05AM PST DON'T WORRY, WE STILL HAVE 3 HOURS FOR GOLD TO GO UP


10:32AM PST NOW GOLD IS GOING TO TAKE OFF


10:22AM PST THIS MOVE UP ISN'T OVER YET


9:59AM PST NEW DOWNTREND CHANNEL LINES DRAWN, AND NEW H&W PATTERN DRAWN, LOWER HEAD


9:55AM PST IF GOLD DOESN'T TAKE OFF BEFORE THE NY CLOSE, IT WILL AFTERWARD


9:40AM PST HERE WE GO!


9:14AM PST GOLD VOLUMES ARE INCREASING IN PULSES AS GOLD TESTS THE WHITE DOWNTREND LINE


HERE COMES THE GOLD SPIKE!

Dollar falling, indicator markets getting in line
gold moving up on very good consistent volume.
Gold is now above the white down trend line and
rising very gradually, but consistently.

Any minute now the buyers are going to pile in.

9:02AM PST GOLD STARTING TO MAKE ITS MOVE


Once again, gold's rise is stopped at the white
downtrend line. For now...

Gold is going to spike up anytime now.

8:53AM PST EURO STILL RISING BUT DOW, OIL ARE FALLING, YEN UP


Dollar is at .8630 and is slipping
Gold is moving up despite the markets that
are not confirming the move.
Gold will move on its on, so I really don't care
what the indicator markets are doing. I do like it
when they are at least in a position to confirm the gold move, but they are not necessary much any more. Gold trading volume continues to be light, but we are getting very near the time when gold starts to make its move for the day.
It must have something to do with it being the noon hour at the Crimex NY time. I think the traders get into a state of hypoglycemia from lack of food and too much coffee and/ or sugar and they just want some excitement during an otherwise dull period. So they start trading and the adrenaline level goes up. No joke! I think that has a lot to do with it. And right on time.
HERE GOES GOLD!

8:41AM PST THE INDICATOR MARKETS LINE UP ONCE AGAIN

8:17AM PST THE INDICATOR MARKETS HAVE REVERSED AGAIN, NOT IN FAVOR OF GOLD, DOLLAR AT .86295

The indicator markets can't keep going in one direction indefinitely. The 'stair step' just like gold, which is what they are doing today. Right now they are in the pullback phase of the 'stair step'.
Volumes have been light for awhile now and gold is trading in a range just below 93870
but is NOT a ledge that gold will fall off of as gold is moving up, not plunging.
Just hang on and gold will spike sometime around 9am pst until the close at 10:30am pst.
IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.

8:12AM PST EVERYTHING IS LINING UP AGAIN FOR A GOLD SPIKE


Dollar slips back on every PPT boost.
The bullion banks could sell big time
at any time, but for now I think they are
relying on the psychology of the traders
who got hit this morning and are still wary
about getting hit again. Those traders want to see
gold start moving up again before they will
buy in. (a stupid trading habit). You buy weakness and sell strength.
It's just so OBVIOUS how money is made in gold.

7:56AM PST ANYTIME NOW GOLD WILL SPIKE


The indicator markets all took a pause to pull back, but are back in gear
Dollar bounced up a bit, but is slipping again.
GOLD IS GOING UP TODAY

7:33AM PST DOLLAR FALLS QUICKLY TO .86115...THE SPIKE IS COMING

7:26AM PST GOLD VOLUME ON THE BOUNCES IS GOOD


This will give buyers more confidence to get in
to this market as they see gold holding the line on good volume. All it will take is one good pulse up and the 'momentum' buyers will jump in driving gold much higher.
The indicator markets I quote are all lining up in favor of gold with the dollar falling to .8623, so I
expect a gold spike anytime soon.
Euro, Oil, Dow all up, Yen down, Bonds down

7:19AM PST ANOTHER 75% RETRACEMENT, NOW BACK UP


This back and forth can go on for a while, but soon enough, gold will break higher simply because there appears to be too much buying pressure to allow it to go lower. When the shorts see that the longs continue their buying, they will have to cover, and that will add to the buying pressure and gold will spike up big time.

7:04AM PST GOLD RETRACES 75%, BACK AND FORTH UNTIL IT BREAKS HIGHER


Bonds, Oil, Dow moving back up
Dollar at .8640

7:00AM PST GOLD RALLIES AGAIN


6:50AM PST IT'S A BATTLE, BUT GOLD WILL GO UP TODAY


The volume on these sell offs is not that significant.
Besides, gold keeps bouncing back.
It's just to easy for traders to keep taking profits
with these sweet swings which you can buy and sell repeatedly much better than having gold run up in one long move.
Dollar hits .8655, Bonds moving lower.

6:35AM PST GOLD WILL BREAK UP AND OUT OF THE WHITE DOWNTREND CHANNEL TODAY


Maybe even on this next test of the white line

6:25AM PST HERE WE GO!


BEFORE THIS DAY IS OVER, YOU WILL SEE
GOLD AT NEW HIGHS!

6:10AM PST NO SIGNIFICANT VOLUME TO THIS SELL OFF, GOLD MOVING BACK UP


Dow and Oil moving back up
Yen down
Dollar hits .8654 and pulls back
to .8644
Gold moving up
Euro not rising

5:56AM PST GOLD GETS WHACKED DOWN TO THE LOW ON ONLY 1000 CONTRACTS SPLIT 700/300 IN TWO MINUTES OF TRADING, THEN BOUNCES, NOW A RETEST OF THE LOW


The Boyz had to scare the longs that are
are waiting for this run up, so they whacked gold
with a decent amount of contracts to 'paint the chart' and scare the longs out of their positions.
Now gold retests the low, bounces and should make new highs above 943 on up to the 75% retrace point shown earlier.
Unfortunately, Euro, Dow, Oil all going down right now, Yen up, Bonds falling. Dow off about 50
Dollar hits .8649
But all of a sudden gold moves up
after the retest of the bottom on decent volume.
Funny how this is all so predictable

5:41AM PST GOLD JUST ABOUT READY TO BREAK OUT


dollar drops to .8628
Euro trying to rise further
Dow down
Bonds turn down
Oil up a dollar from the low in the 33s

5:30AM PST WHERE GOLD IS GOING...94910


5:28AM PST GOLD SPIKE STOPPED RIGHT ON THE TOP LINE OF THE DOWNTREND CHANNEL ON THE FIRST BREAK OUT, NOW FOR THE MOVE HIGHER


5:23AM PST THE SPIKE, THE PULL BACK, NOW UP AGAIN HIGHER?


Euro starting to rise
Bonds, Dow, Oil pull back some
Yen moving up
Dollar pulls back to .86305

5:19AM PST


5:12AM PST GOLD RETRACES 75%


Gold is pushed down on light volume to
EXACTLY the 75% point, bounces on light
volume, gets hit back down to the low in the next
minute, now attempting to rise just before the open.
WHERE ARE THE GOLD BULLS?
Dollar at .8646
Sure looks like PPT manipulation to me to set the
mood at the Crimex NY open.
NO REPORTS TODAY
JUST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT 7AM PST

5:00AM PST GOLD MAY WAIT UNTIL JUST BEFORE THE OPEN TO MOVE UP SUDDENLY, THEN FALL BACK QUICKLY


Dollar hits .8640
Bonds up
Oil up slightly
Dow turning down some
Euro falling gradually
Yen up a bit after a down trend

4:42AM PST GOLD STRUGGLING HIGHER, SHOULD TAKE OFF ANY MINUTE NOW


Very light volume on the way up,
Oil down, bonds turn down
Dow turns down
Yen moving down
Euro down a bit but not too bad
Dollar at .8627, barely moving
gold moving higher as I type

4:29AM PST FRIDAY THE 13TH, THE RIGHT SHOULDER OF THIS INVERSE H&S PATTERN SHOULD RESOLVE UP


As we get closer to the NY open, there is a good
possibility of a quick rally up as the H&S pattern
resolves up.
The rally will sell off as quickly as it goes up.
Take profits as soon as the rally stalls.

4:02AM PST GOLD KEEPS TESTING THE 942 LEVEL AND HAS FORMED A FLAG WHICH SHOULD RESOLVE UP ALONG WITH THE INVERSE H&S PATTERN


Dollar has risen to .8630,
currently at .86255

3:45AM PST POSSIBLE REVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS PATTERN, SHOULD RESOLVE UP


3:32AM PST GOLD BATTLING TO MOVE HIGHER


I don't know what is so 'magical' about the
942 level, but that's where the shorts are trying
to hold gold from moving above.
Dollar has moved up a bit to .86275

3:00AM PST GOLD MAKES A COMEBACK


Dollar currently at .8620

2:41AM PST FRIDAY GOLD FIGHTS ITS WAY BACK UP ON LIGHT VOLUME


Dollar still down at .8612

2:07AM PST FRIDAY GOLD DID TURN UP BRIEFLY AND WAS IMMEDIATELY WHACKED



Of course, the Dollar has dropped to .8597, currently .8608, Euro is dropping, Yen down,
Dow moving up, Oil coming off its lows.
So, it's only logical that gold should fall, right?
NOT!

Thursday, February 12, 2009

8:32PM PST GOLD STARTS TO RISE

1:26PM PST GOLD SINKS LOWER APPROACHING THE AFTERNOON CLOSE AT 2:15PM PST


Gold has penetrated the blue uptrend line several times so I am eliminating it. The white down flag is still valid and resolves UP.
This market is getting very exciting, but the higher it goes, the lower our standard of living is falling. So don't get to giddy about any profits you are making. We're only running in place.
Nap time.

1:04PM PST WILL GOLD MOVE UP FROM THE UPTREND LINE AFTER RETRACING 75%?


I'll wait until the night session.
Right now, I need to sleep.
Until later this evening.
GT out.

12:49PM PST NEW DOWN FLAG


Afternoon trading, as it gets closer to the afternoon close at 2:15pm pst, is more likely to sell off or go sideways.
When it reopens at 3pm pst it can start moving again, as that re-establishes a new margin period.
At 4:15pm pst when the CBOT/CME gold opens, there can be a good deal of movement in trading I've noticed from time to time.
I prefer to stay away from trading the closer we get to the 2:15 pm pst gold close just in case something goes wrong and my position goes south. That way I prevent the possibility of a margin call too soon. I would rather start fresh with extra time to let gold move.
As gold moves into overnight trading is when bigger moves can take place, especially after midnight pst. You can make the same money, but it takes hours instead of minutes to do it versus the day session...usually. The night moves are starting to move much faster and in greater ranges than ever before. Just be sure to take your profits while you have them, even if you get out early. The way gold is trading, it is foolish to have profits disappear and go negative on you. It damages your attitude and confidence for future trades.
Nothing like a profit to keep your attitude positive. Today was VERY good for me, and I want to keep it that way.

11:54AM PST GOLD RETRACES 50% OF THE MORNING'S UP MOVE, NOW MOVING BACK UP STRONGLY 75%


11:21AM PST GOLD VIOLATES THE WHITE LINE ON PREVIOUS CHART AND THE UPTREND CHANNEL


Gold retraces 75%

10:59AM PST


Support on the new white line?

MOVING AVERAGES ON A DAILY CHART FEB 12, 2009


Gold is way above all the MAs and should have
a tendency to pull back to them.
This is being counteracted by the rush to buy gold as a save haven from economic disaster as it unfolds by the minute.

10:54AM PST THE PULL BACK


Look for support on the blue down trend line