Friday, May 8, 2009

THE BIG PICTURE


A LARGER VIEW


THIS WEEK IN GOLD TRADING


2:15PM PST AFTERNOON CLOSE FOR THE WEEKEND


GOLD STILL RISING GRADUALLY INTO THE 2:15PM PDST CLOSE FOR WEEKEND


Euro and Yen rising to their day's highs
Dow closes up about 165
Oil on its highs in the 58s
Bonds going sideways after coming off their highs
for the day
Dollar keeps slipping, currently at .8250 the low of
the day, if you don't count the weird drop to .8000 even
which I think is a bad input, but is still on all my futuresource
delayed charts. I can't find that low on other data sources

THE LARGER VIEW


GOLD PULLS BACK AFTER A 75% RETRACE UP


GOLD RISES ON LOW VOLUME TO HIT THE 75% RETRACE POINT, NOW WHAT?


Dow up 140
Bonds moving down
Euro 'flaging' and could move higher
Yen doing the same
Oil hits high of 58.70
Dollar at .8276 just slip sliding away.

11:12AM PDST


GOLD STOPS SHORT OF THE 75% POINT AT 91710


GOLD RISES INTO THE CRIMEX CLOSE ON LIGHT VOLUME


GOLD JUMPS HIGHER ON ABOUT 700 CONTRACTS AND STALLS


Euro, Yen rising to new highs
Oil moving up to the 58s
Bonds turn down
Dow up 111 and plateauing somewhat

DOLLAR CHART SHOWS DROP TO .8000 (3 cents!) AND A SNAP BACK UP TO .8310, EITHER A BAD TICK, OR A REAL MOVE, NO NEWS YET


DOLLAR FALLS FURTHER TO .8316, DOW, OIL RISE, EURO, YEN ALSO TRYING TO MOVE UP, BONDS MOVING HIGHER




Gold starts moving up

GOLD SLIPPING LOWER ON LIGHT VOLUME


GOLD DROPS LOWER


Dow up 100 points, Oil rising some
Euro, Yen rising some.
Dollar forming a ledge at its lows to fall from


NEW BLUE UPTREND LINE DRAWN


GOLD FALLS OUT OF THE BLUE UPTREND CHANNEL, GOLD IS STILL WEAK


DOLLAR FALLS TO .8330 AGAIN, EURO, YEN RISE AGAIN, DOW UP 60


GOLD HITS THE 1ST OF THE 75% RETRACE POINTS



GOLD SEEMS WEAK TO ME


Bonds move higher again
Dow moving down again after a pause
Euro down
Yen up
Oil slipping
Dollar slips a little lower, currently at .83505

GOLD EITHER CONSOLIDATES HERE AND MOVES HIGHER, OR PULLS BACK AS SHOWN..OR FURTHER


GOLD MOVES UP ITS 2ND LEG UP ON GOOD VOLUME TO NEAR THE 75% RETRACE POINT OF THE MORNING'S DOWN MOVE


Gold is also just above the top blue line of the
short term uptrend channel, should pull back
before moving higher...IF...it moves higher

GOLD 'ROLLING OVER' TO MOVE LOWER?


Dollar rises off the low of .83285 up to .8361
currently at .83555
Euro moving down some
Dow moving down, now up only 44
Bonds rising in stair steps
Oil in the 57s



GOLD CREEPING BACK UP ON LIGHT/MODERATE VOLUME, MAY FALL MORE


POSSIBLE RETRACEMENT POINTS


GOLD FALLS HARD ON OVER 3000 CONTRACTS IN ONE MINUTE BELOW THE PURPLE UPTREND CHANNEL, NEXT STOP COULD BE DOWN TO 890




THIS RALLY MAY NOT TAKE US UP FURTHER, I EXPECT A PULL BACK TO THE LOW AND MAYBE LOWER


Gold pulls back fast



Volume on this rally was okay, but not the type

that would indicate this was anything other than

the usual bounce off the bottom of a big drop,

although it was consistently light/moderate and

moved up without any pull backs and got quite

high (more than 75% of the last down leg)

GOLD DOES FALL LOWER ON STRONG VOLUME TO YESTERDAY'S CLOSE PRICE, A FAVORITE TRICK OF GOLD




GOLD LOOKING VERY WEAK ON LIGHT VOLUME


Bid and Ask volumes are getting larger in pulses
in both directions, long and short. Some traders
may be thinking this is a bottom.
I don't think so.

WHERE GOLD COULD FALL TO INITIALLY (the 75% points)


GOLD SLIPS BACK 75% ON LIGHT VOLUME, COULD SUDDENLY FALL LOWER


GOLD FORMS A PATTERN THAT SAYS IT IS GOING TO NEW LOWS BY FALLING OFF THIS CONSOLIDATION AT THE LOWS




GOLD CONSOLIDATED THEN MOVED UP ON LIGHT VOLUME, THEN PULLED BACK A BIT, COULD SPIKE HIGHER QUICKLY IF NOT SUPPRESSED


GOLD FORMING A LEDGE TO FALL FROM


Gold attempts a rally on light/moderate volume,
but stalls quickly


Euro consolidating at its highs, could move higher

Could pull gold up.

Gold could just be consolidating here and move

back up. I just don't know what it will do, but

it will be a big move

DOLLAR FALLS TO .8330, EURO, YEN, BONDS SPIKE UP, GOLD FALLING


As I've told you many times, gold usually bounces
after a big drop, then retests the low, makes a little
lower low, then rallies well after that.


Gold bounce has some moderate/strong volume
but appears to be being suppressed successfully




GOLD GETS KNOCKED DOWN HARD, NOW LET'S SEE IF BUYERS FIGHT BACK


NEXT 75% POINT UP IS AT 92210 NEAR THE WHITE TOP LINE OF THE UPTREND CHANNEL


Dow was up about 100 points, but is falling, now
up only 68
Gold suddenly falling hard on fairly strong volume.



Gold moving up and down very fast and being

held down mightily by the boyz.