Friday, March 13, 2009

THE BIG PICTURE SO FAR


THE CURRENT 'SUPER' INTERMEDIATE UPTREND CHANNEL


THIS WEEK'S GOLD TRADING


2:15PM PST AFTERNOON CLOSE FOR THE WEEKEND


1:10PM PDST MARKET IS ALMOST DEAD


12:19PM PDST GOLD GOING NOWHERE SLOWLY


Two more hours of trading left in this week.
I don't think gold is going to do anything dramatic
before the close at 2:15pm pdst.
The indicator markets are all over the map today.
Dow is now back up 60 points.
Dollar has been thrashing up and down in a tight
range today, currently at .87875.
Oil just fell to the 46s and is going sideways
Euro trending up in stair steps
Yen and Bonds erraticly up and down most of the day

10:47AM PDST GOLD SHOWS SOME WEAKNESS


Retrace points both up and down



10:32AM PDST THE CRIMEX CLOSES VERY QUIETLY


10:05AM PDST GOLD IS GOING NOWHERE APPROACHING THE CRIMEX CLOSE


9:15AM PDST GOLD SUDDENLY JUMPS TO THE 75% POINT AT 933



Gold comes right back off the blue trendline




8:42AM PDST GOLD TRADING VERY QUIET


Dollar rises to .88095, currently at .8803
Bonds up,
Dow down
Oil rising
Yen sort of up
Euro pulling back

8:10AM PDST GOLD SHOWING NO STRENGTH RIGHT NOW


7:58AM PDST GOLD MAY BE MOVING UP HERE


A pulse higher on 372 contracts then almost
no volume


Gold does move higher and stops at the
downtrend line, all on light volume




7:26AM PDST VOLUME HAS BEEN GOOD SO FAR, BUT IT'S READY FALL BACK BIG TIME




7:07AM PDST QUITE A THUMPING GOLD TAKES, GOT MANIPULATION?


The bounce. Wait for a retest of the low.
It'll probably go lower before any rally worth
trading. Volume is decent, but gold isn't moving
up fast enough to make it worth jumping in
anywhere but on an extreme low.



The bounce isn't very impressive here even

though gold dropped to the blue lower line

of the uptrend channel

7:02AM PDST GOLD STARTS TO FALL HARD ON VERY STRONG VOLUME


Very sudden drops on big volume



It's way below this photo

6:50AM PDST LINES REDRAWN ON DOWN FLAG


I still think gold is going to keep moving down
for a while

6:43AM PDST GOLD MAY BE FINDING SUPPORT AT THE INTERSECTION OF THESE TRENDLINES


I don't expect gold to rocket above this level
right now. It is in a substantial resistance area
and the boyz don't want it to go back up to $1000
and higher, so they'll probably bang it down from
here for a while.
This is a tricky area to trade, because you don't want
to get stuck in April contracts ahead of First Notice on
the 28th, but the June contract trades very lethargically
and like glue instead of trading fluidly tick by tick due
to a lack of liquidity right now. That gets better nearer
the First Notice of April gold when June moves into
Front Month position.

6:26AM PDST GOLD BREAKS ABOVE THE DOWNTREND LINE, THEN FADES



Lines redrawn on down flag
gold just retraced 100% back to 9335




6:12AM PDST GOLD IS 'RESPECTING' THE SHORT TERM DOWNTREND LINE FOR NOW


Bonds have moved back up some.
All the other markets are now moving down
except the Dollar which has turned back up,
currently at .87955

6:05AM PDST GOLD IS NOW ABOVE THE WHITE DOWNTREND CHANNEL


DARK GREEN UPTREND CHANNEL


It may pull back to the top white line for support.

The next two 75% retrace points up in yellow.

Gold is in the lower half of the DARK GREEN

INTERMEDIATE UPTREND CHANNEL (hard to see on this chart)

5:58AM PDST FINALLY!... GOLD STARTS TO PULL BACK, MAKING MY DECISION TO SELL A WISE ONE


5:38AM PDST GOLD LOOKS LIKE IT'S GETTING READY TO PULL BACK


Gold finding some support right on my old trade
buy in point. That's ALWAYS how it goes!



Euro is moving higher

Yen sideways

Dollar had been moving up, but just started

slipping down to .8780

Dow up about 65

Bonds going straight down

Oil rising in stair steps

5:25AM PDST GOLD SPIKES TO 94110 ON GOOD VOLUME BEFORE THE CRIMEX OPEN


The horizontal green line is where my trades were.
Notice that they are still in profit. Not worth keeping
them do to the time left in the contract before
FNotice.
The long VERTICAL green line up to 94110
was on 2470 contracts, but not all up. Gold
spiked to the top and pulled back in a milli-second,
impossible to trade without an order already in place
at the top or near it. Market orders can be suicide in
trading like that.

I managed to get out of the trade I was under-
water on for a few days. I may stay OUT of
April Gold to avoid getting trapped at FIRST
NOTICE on April 28th when the contract expires.
Gold is now looking like it may either consolidate here
and go higher or fall back on prifity taking. It has
exceeded the White downtrend line and the 930
area of resistance the Dan Norcini has been indicating
in the last few days. Gold needs to close solidly above
this 940 area and aboven 960 to move back to $1000


and higher

5:14AM PDST ONE MINUTE CHART


Volume is not extradinarily high but strong.
Gold has exceeded the white downtrend line
and is still zooming up as I type this

5:12AM PDST GOLD MAKING NEW HIGHS BY THE SECOND


5:09AM PDST FRIDAY THE 13th OVERNIGHT GOLD


Gold is still climbing as is type this

Thursday, March 12, 2009

7:30PM PDST GOLD WILL STAY IN THE DOWN FLAG UNTIL SOMETIME TONIGHT AND WILL BREAK EITHER UP OR DOWN IN A MAJOR WAY


I'm going to bed now, as I can't stand this day
any longer due to the unrelenting stupidity
of Americans, their guv'mint and a few people
in particular of a gender I dare not mention for
fear of prosecution by the 'correctness police'.
Good night to you all and forget about ever being
able to have a safe relationship ever again in your
remaining life. The idiots are in charge.

6:11PM PDST GOLD HAS NOW RETRACED 75% OF THE LAST UP MOVE AND SHOULD NOW RALLY


5:16PM PDST GOLD TAKES A DUMP


3:55PM PDST GOLD RETRACES 75% THEN RALLIES


3:15PM PDST GOLD DROPS ON THE 3PM PDST RE-OPEN


2:15PM PST AFTERNOON CLOSE


Gold at least closed to the upside.
At 3pm pdst gold re-opens, then CBOT Gold
opens at 4:16pm pdst and gold usually gets
a bit of action then. After that, it can be slow
trading for the rest of the night up to around
11pm pdst to midnight pdst. Several different
markets open around the clock with the opportunity
for gold to make a brief bold move in either direction.
Usually while I am sleeping, or just after I close my
eyes for a quick rest.

1:47PM PDST GOLD MAKING UPWARD PROGRESS SLOWLY ON LIGHT VOLUME


12:52PM PDST GOLD STILL RISING, DOLLAR DROPS TO .8774


Dollar sinking massively.
Dow up 254 before the close in 6 minutes
Euro rising
Yen rising
Oil just below 47
Bonds rising
I gold doesn't take off in the next hour, it
surely should when gold re-opens at 3pm pdst
and for sure after 4:15pm pdst

12:22PM PDST GOLD STARTS ITS MOVE UP


Dollar falls to .8784, but bounces to .8794 currently
Euro rising
Dow was up about 250, but now around 220
Oil rising near 47
gold pauses in a little consolidation but pulls back
on light volume near the top line of the down flag
looking for support for a further move up
Volume may pick up soon and gold could spike

11:52AM PDST GOLD MOVES UP TO THE DOWN TREND LINE


Gold is definitely 'respecting' that down trendline.
This can go on for quite a while if traders are
making money off the back and forth in this
trading range. Why spoil a good thing...right?
This range gives a trader $500 per contract moves
both up and down at a minimum, until it doesn't
and spikes, or drops, against you and takes a good
hunk back.
Dollar has dropped further to .88095
Dow is up over 22o points.
Oil moving higher to the 47s
Bonds moving down
Euro moving up