Friday, November 7, 2008
Dollar climbs back up to .86605.
Euro falls at the end to 1.2697
Dow rise on the close
Oil ends near the lows in 61s
Bonds off their highs
All in all a nowhere day...
much better than a huge down day.
Next week has Veteran's Day and we are getting
close to the holidays which thin the markets' volumes,
but can lead to big moves on that thin volume.
Gold retraces to the first 75% point at 73630
and falls back, but at least it made a move up
instead of falling further.
Dollar down a bit from its high of .8660
Dow was rallying, but is now falling rapidly
one hour before the close.
Euro has pulled back from its recent rally and
stalled at 1.2763
Dow moving lower but still up on the day 150
Dollar trading up and down between .8600 and .8650
last at .8618
Gold trading very weakly on low volume to the upside,
should break down very soon and go much lower
7:13AM PST GOLD RETRACES 75% SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS' LOW, NOW MOVING BACK UP WITHIN THE BLUE UP FLAG
The blue up flag resolves down. The move up
here is tepid. Dollar is off its highs this morning,
Euro rising at the moment, Dow rising, Yen down,
Oil at 62 up from its low at 60
Gold rises a bit overnight, falls as it nears NY,
quick runup at the opening that gets bombed
immediately. A 75% retrace of that sell off, then
a retrace of that up move. Market is quieting down
in its range of trading and may go sideways for
the rest of the session.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Dow tanks 500 points on close
dollar higher at .8670
Tonight's market should be interesting.
Gold didn't sell off well enough on the day close,
so it is starting 15 minutes later.
Dollar up at its day highs, Euro tanks,
Dow really tanks in a steady sell off and may not
even rally near the close, as most people are
starting to get the point that the economy is heading
south big time. The rest is just noise a la Sinclair.
Gold will sell off into the close because there
are lots of traders who held on to their long
positions on the way down and could be getting
margin calls if gold doesn't rally before the close.
AND IT'S NOT! Or at least hasn't so far.
They will panic sell near the close, then the bottom
feeders will buy up those longs at a bargain and gold
will rally after the day session close.
8:36AM PST GOLD FALLS TO THE BOTTOM LINE OF THE MAJOR DOWNTREND CHANNEL (white) AND BREAKS THRU THE GREEN UPTREND LINE
Gold is now in the process of retesting the low.
Could go a pinch lower and bounce quickly, then
start a rally back up, but a grudging rally, not
a spike up.
Massive selling like this is precipitated by a
Central Bank then expands on panic selling and
eager short sellers
Gold should retest the low before moving up.
Stocks have tanked, dollar is getting a PPT boost
Euro sank big time...
But just how far can they drop gold before people
simply say bullshit.
December Gold First Notice for delivery is November 28th.
So if you can, TAKE DELIVERY and screw Comex to the wall.
Dollar rises to .8619 near day's high,
Euro movng down to 1.2763
Down sinking fast off 250
Bonds, Oil moving down
Yen rising...all negative to gold
Gold could go sideways and trade in a range
between 75 260 and 76130 for a while and
then break out higher, but it could also get
beaten down again if it takes too long to rise.
These markets are simply hinky and for gamblers
only in the short term. But with each day, the
hyper inflation that HAS TO COME is getting closer.
And you will want CASH GOLD COINS then.
After such a healthy run up in two segments,
the urge to take profits is extreme with day traders.
Also gold is running into resistance. As Dan Norcini
has told us repeatedly, there is major resistance at
the 780 level, and also gold needs to hold above 750
for at least a day. As I type gold is moving up and out
of the down flag. I don't see any other markets that
would cause a gold breakout. Dollar isn't really dropping,
Stocks are dropping, bonds are pulling back from their highs,
Euro isn't rising, so gold is sort of on its own right now.
A good deal of today's run up is probably shorts covering
out of panic to not get wiped out as the market moved up
boldly on the open.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Dollar has risen to .8590 currently .8582
Euro has fallen steadily since its spike up to 1.3080,
currently at 1.2850
Dow falls on the day to 9090 low
Bonds have retraced about 50% of their whole down
move from 11910 on 10/24 to 112 19 5 on 11/02 just
three days ago. A flight to safety in bonds? Part of
the reason the Dollar has risen. Buy dollars to buy bonds.
Paper for more Paper that doesn't pay any interest, and
is paid back in more worthless, depreciating paper!
In the first minute after CBOT gold closed at 2pm,
gold did a quick drop on 29 contracts on the COMEX
to 73780, one tick below the previous low.
Everything is falling at the moment, Euro, Dow, Bonds.
Even oil is slipping. Only the Yen is up.
Dollar has dropped to .8519 after its pathetic rally today
up to .8556, but is now at .8547 this afternoon.
Dollar has risen to .8516 from the low at .8446
Euro slipping to 1.2960
Dow falling to 9250 off 336 pts
Bonds off their high of 117 03 at 116 19 5
Oil down from 70 to 65.50
Dollar has risen, but fell back
Euro has fallen.
White up flag resolves down
Blue down flag resolves up
Blue is winning at the moment
Gold more or less trapped here as every move
up is slapped down, but the bottom is holding well.
It is consolidating and could make a big move up, but
if it takes too long to do it, it will get knocked down.
Dow moving down, Bonds moving up.
Yen rising, Euro sort of sideways after moving up some.
Oil settling into the 68s after its big up move yesterday
from the low 60s to low 70s and forming a down flag
that could resolve up
Euro was rising and stocks opened moving up,
but immediately turned south, Euro now moving
Gold now making its second move up after only
being able to retrace up to the 61 .8% fib at 758
and that attempt fails too.
Dollar moving lower with lower highs, and slightly